Why Mark Melancon is Not a Closer

If someone walked up to you on the street and asked what attribute is most important in a closer, you would probably respond by saying that they need to be able to miss bats. There is just no way around the fact that closers with lower than average strikeout rates are the anomalies; the Trevor Hoffmans and Huston Streets of the world are actually very few and far between. I like Mark Melancon, and I wrote at the time of his acquisition that it was one of Neal Huntington’s finest trades. It has certainly paid off – Melancon was one of the key pieces in the 2013 miracle season. He is a very talented pitcher – he was third in WAR among all relievers last season – and he is certainly capable of pitching in high leverage situations. But he is not an ideal closer.

Certainly, Melancon will succeed, as will most pitchers, went brought in to protect a 4-1 lead, as he did on Wednesday night. As Bill James once pointed out, your closer will convert 99% of such situations, as opposed to 98% for any other pitcher on your staff. The problem arises when the lead is thin, as it was yesterday. In many ways, what happened was a glitch – Melancon almost never walks anybody. Regardless, no team in baseball will run out a pitcher in the ninth inning who strikes out less than six batters per nine innings – at least not for long. The reason for this is that balls in play turn into hits roughly three out of ten times; once a ball is put into play, there isn’t a whole lot the pitcher can do to convert it into an out. If guys get on base and in scoring position, hoping that the next guy will hit the ball right at one of your fielders is not the position you want to be in.

The problem with Melancon, to put it succinctly, is that there are 141 relievers in baseball who have a higher strikeout percentage this year – last year, there were 57.

To be fair, we have to presume that 2013 is more indicative of Melancon’s true talent in this regard, and that his 2014 performance will right itself. Using his 2013 numbers, let’s compare Melancon’s strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, one of the more effective predictors of future performance, against that of the top closers in the game last year, in other words, the guys you would rather have than Melancon.

Let’s look at the same group of pitchers using another key ratio for a closer, the percentage of swings and misses by opposing batters.

I am not saying that Melancon, as of today, should not be the Pirates closer (although I don’t think we are far away from seeing Tony Watson get a chance). I just think we need to be realistic about our options for the rest of the season, and especially for next year, which is looking more and more like the priority every day. Grilli will not be back, and Melancon is not the answer. Clearly, Neal Huntington will need another rabbit under that hat.